Comex Gold Speculators 'Miss the Move' as Bullion Tries $3000 Again
Monday, 3/17/2025 15:58
GOLD BULLION briefly touched $3000 again on Monday while New York gold futures peaked $7 below Friday's new high of $3015 – hit despite speculators cutting their bullish position in Comex contracts to the lowest in 36 weeks – as warnings grew that US President Trump's trade policies risk an economic slowdown plus higher inflation worldwide,
writes Atsuko Whitehouse at BullionVault.
London gold spot prices tested $3000 per Troy ounce this morning before dropping $10 below, repeating Friday's pattern of losing $20 after hitting a new all-time high at $3004.
"Institutional and leveraged accounts have largely missed
the $2500-$3000 move," says Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at the Swiss refining and finance group MKS Pamp, noting that total open interest in New York-settled Comex gold futures on the CME derivatives exchange is still 100,000 contracts below the mid-January peak.
Ahead of last week's new records above
$3000 gold, the total number of Comex gold future and options contracts open across the market was only 3.9% above its 10-year average, remaining below 800,000 for the third Tuesday in a row according to the latest weekly data compiled by the regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Back in August 2020, when
gold last broke a 'psychological' four-figure level at $2000 per ounce during the Covid crisis, total open interest in US gold derivatives exceeded 1 million for twelve consecutive weeks.
In the week-ending last Tuesday, hedge funds and other leveraged speculators cut their bullish betting, net of that group's bearish bets, for the 7th time running, down to the smallest level since early July 2024.
"We have $3200 per ounce as gold's forecasted high this year," says Shiels, repeating her prediction for gold's upper limit in 2025 and citing Trump's trade war, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, stock-market volatility and a weak US Dollar for the additional $200 of gains.
"In a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing tariff changes, appetite for gold remains strong," says global bank and London bullion market-maker Standard Chartered's precious-metals analyst Suki Cooper.
After a "resilient" 2025, the global economy is showing signs of weakness according to the latest
Interim Economic Outlook from global financial forum and think-tank the OECD,
pointing to slower growth, lingering inflation and an uncertain policy environment led by trade friction.
"I've been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that [stock market] corrections are healthy. They're normal," said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, in an interview Sunday when asked about the plunge in US equities since Trump re-took the Oval Office.
Asian stock markets rose less than 0.7% on Monday after the Communist Government of
China vowed to revive consumption in the world's second-largest economy, moving to "vigorously boost consumption" and "stimulate domestic demand across the board" according to Xinhua, China's state news agency.
Gold prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange today set another fresh high at ¥695 per gram, but showed a premium to London of just $3 per ounce, less than half the typical incentive for new bullion imports to the precious metal's No.1 consumer nation.
London gold priced in Euros and the UK Pound held almost unchanged from Friday's close at €2744 and £2309.
US gold-backed ETF trust funds expanded last week, with the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD) and the iShares gold ETF (NYSEArca: IAU) expanding to the biggest since the end of last month and September 2023 respectively.
The price of silver, which finds nearly 60% of its annual demand from industrial uses, fell 0.7% from Friday's close – the highest since the end of October – to trade at $33.62 per ounce.
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