Analysts Rush to Hike 2025 Gold Price Forecasts Above $3000
Tuesday, 2/18/2025 15:35
The GOLD PRICE rose again on Tuesday, rallying towards the all-time record highs of this time last week as analysts at major banks rushed to hike their 2025 gold forecasts above $3000 following the 'safe haven' metal's jump of 12.0% already this year.
"Deep-rooted bullish sentiment [and]
unprecedented gold market dislocations" mean the highest prices "are yet to come," says Joni Teves, strategist at Swiss bank and London bullion clearer UBS.
Raising her full-year gold price forecast from $2800 to $2900 per Troy ounce, she now sees the precious metal peaking as high as $3200 in 2025.
That's also $100 higher than UBS's prior 2025 gold price forecast, published barely 3 weeks ago in the London Bullion Market Association's survey of professional analyst predictions.
As a group, those analysts forecast gold will average $2736 per ounce this year, 14.7% above the 2024 outcome.
London bullion has already averaged $30 per ounce more than that so far in 2025, rising to $2926 on Tuesday to trade within $15 of
last week's new gold price all-time highs.
"If uncertainty regarding economic policy continues, including tariffs imposed by the United States, speculative [gold] demand may increase alongside rising gold purchases by central banks and inflows into exchange-traded funds," say analysts at US investment bank Goldman Sachs, hiking their end-2025 forecast to $3100 per Troy ounce.
Like UBS, that's
$100 higher than the forecast Goldman's analysts issued just a month ago.
Continued uncertainty around new US President Trump's trade tariffs policy, potentially including 10% or even 25% import duty on bullion, is having a "disproportionate and distorting effect on gold prices," says Philip Smith, group CEO of financial and commodities brokerage StoneX.
"What we’ve seen in the past 7, 8 weeks in the market was probably one of the largest physical movements of gold from all over the world into the US. We estimate over 2,000 tonnes."
"Metal is being shipped there from all locations where there are refineries,” agrees Nikos Kavalis, managing director of specialist analysts Metals Focus.
The gap between New York's most-active Comex gold futures contract and the global benchmark of London bullion today held around $12 per ounce, dramatically lower than January's pre-inauguration spike to $50 but still well over twice the typical level and sucking metal into the United States.
Should retail investors and institutional funds finally join
emerging-market central banks buying gold, claims analyst Michael Widmer at US finance giant Bank of America, a combined 10% jump in their demand could spur a gold price peak of $3500.
"That's a lot, but not impossible."
After totalling over 1,000 tonnes for the third year running on estimates from Metals Focus and the mining-industry's World Gold Council – equal to 29.0% of new mine supply – "the pace of central bank gold buying remains critical to the outlook," says US investment bank Morgan Stanley.
With officials from the White House today meeting Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to discuss Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and
a possible meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin – wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes – "We remain watchful of any slowing in central bank demand that may arise in the event of a potential Russia/Ukraine peace deal," says Stanley.
"It was really the start of the [Ukraine] conflict in 2022, and the sanctioning of Russia's assets, that catalysed the step up in central bank buying among emerging markets more generally," Morgan Stanley said.
"We'd see a potential peace deal as bringing some risk to prices."
Analysis by BullionVault shows
AI gold price forecasts for 2025 predicting a year-end close above $3000 per Troy ounce.
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