Trade War Latest: Gold Price Forecasts Raised, Silver 2025 Cut
Wednesday, 4/09/2025 14:51
The PRICE of GOLD jumped within $100 of last week's record high in London trade Wednesday but silver prices struggled as the US and China piled fresh trade tariffs on each other's exports and the slump in global stock markets resumed.
With the worsening trade war seeing the US Government tax imports of any Chinese goods by 104% starting today, Beijing hiked China's tariffs on US imports by 50 percentage points overnight to 84%.
But while Japanese and European equity bourses sank again, Shanghai's CSI300 index rose 1.0% and Hong Kong shares added 0.7% after the People's Bank said yesterday it is
supporting active purchases of domestic stocks by the country's sovereign wealth fund.
"$200 'Trump chaos' premium [is now] added to [our] original gold forecast," says a note from strategist Nicky Shiels at Swiss bullion refining and finance group MKS Pamp, raising her 2025 average price prediction to $2950 per Troy ounce.
In contrast, "$2 discount on original silver forecast," Shiels says, "given negative effect of trade war on industrial demand."
Shiels' original 2025 gold-price forecast was in line with the consensus among bullion-market analysts entering trade association
the LBMA's annual survey, with those 36 entrants calling as a group for $2736 per Troy ounce, a rise of 14.7% from 2024's new record average.
For silver, Shiels came into 2025 as the most bullish forecaster, predicting a new record annual average for the industrially useful precious metal of $36.50 against the consensus call for $32.86, itself a 16.0% rise from 2024's twelve-year high.
Gold's price in terms of silver today rose above 101, a level for
the Gold-Silver Ratio not seen outside of global economic recessions or depression.
"The bull case for gold remains strong despite this week's correction," says a note from analysts at German finance group Deutsche Bank, raising their annual average
2025 gold price forecast yet again, this time by over $400 per ounce to $3139.
Gold today jumped to $3075 per Troy ounce in London spot trade, the highest since Friday, while silver held little changed above $30.40.
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