ChatGPT vs Gemini Gold Price Predictions 2024
Thursday, 1/16/2025 12:02
Did human forecasts or AI predictions prove most accurate for precious metals in 2024...?
AFTER GOLD had a strong end to 2023, BullionVault users were also bullish for 2024, with over 2,000 survey respondents on average predicting a price rise to $2342 price per Troy ounce by the end of December 2024.
We'll see how accurate that forecast proved in a minute. Because with gold racing higher early last year following that bullish price prediction, it got us thinking.
Like gold, global stock markets had also risen sharply in 2023 and hit new all-time highs in 2024, led by shares related to artificial intelligence such as Nvidia. So, what did some of the world's most popular AI tools (ChatGPT and Google's Gemini) think of gold and the wider bullion market this year?
On 23 February 2024, we asked the two natural language processing tools to predict the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium over the next 4 calendar quarters. We could then compare those AI forecasts against the very human forecasts from BullionVault users, as well as from professional forecasters at bullion banks, brokerages and specialist consultancies.
Below, we've compiled the 2024 price predictions from those AI tools, BullionVault's investor community, professional gold market commentators, and the actual quarterly price outcomes.
Who proved to be the most accurate forecaster at the end of 2024: human investors, human experts, or AI machines?
How accurate were AI precious metals price forecasts in 2024
In general, Google’s Gemini price forecasts for 2024 were closer to the actual 2024 quarterly average bullion prices than ChatGPT predictions.
Across all 4 quarters Gemini’s price predictions were on average closer to reality for gold, platinum and palladium than ChatGPT.
However, when predicting 2024 quarterly silver prices ChatGPT’s forecasts were slightly more accurate than Gemini’s.
As you’ll see from the charts below, when trying to forecast palladium prices for 2024 ChatGPT clearly referenced incredibly bullish data and ended up predicting prices that ended up being more than double actual prices.
See below more detailed commentary for each individual metal.
Gold price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $1,700 - $2,200 | $1,700 - $2,250 | $1,700 - $2,300 | $1,750 - $2,350 |
| Gemini | $2,120 - $2,344 | $2,250 - $2,350 | $2,400 - $2,600 | $2,500 - $2,800 |
| BV users | $2,342 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $2,059 | |||
| Actual Ave. Gold Price | $2,071.76 | $2,337.99 | $2,476.80 | $2,661.61 |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 2 January 2025. Data for 30 December 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Clearly, ChatGPT and Google's Gemini were far more bullish on gold than BullionVault users, never mind
the LBMA's panel of analysts, who were asked to forecast gold's annual average price across the year.
Our New Year 2024 survey of 2,002 precious-metal investors (who say they typically hold 85% of their investable wealth in other assets) found that a quarter (25.0%) believed monetary policy such as interest rates and quantitative easing or tightening would have the greatest impact on gold prices from January to the end of December last year. This was closely followed by geopolitics and government spending (22.0% and 20.8% respectively).
Would that prove to be a useful insight? Twice a year we
survey investors who've chosen to use BullionVault for their opinions on where precious metals prices will trade on the next New Year's Eve. We also ask them what factors will have the biggest impact on those prices.
In December 2022, when gold was trading at $1800 per ounce, BullionVault's survey respondents predicted that the price would reach $2012 twelve months later. Not too bad when you consider the gold price averaged $2029 for the month last December.
The following Christmas we asked them to forecast where gold prices would then end 2024. This time, on average, they predicted $2342 per ounce, some 10% below the final price of the year but much closer than most professional analysts had guessed.
How did AI gold price predictions compare vs human forecasts and the actual price in 2024?
Gemini's high and low quarterly average price predictions for gold in 2024 were far tighter than those for ChatGPT and when examining Gemini' s average quarterly price forecast compared to the actual prices, Gemini predictions only varied by 1.7% compared to the actual average quarterly gold price over the year.
However, if you only look at the Gemini predictions for the last 3-quarters of 2024, the variance vs the actual average prices drop to 0.4%, indicating that Gemini's 2024 quarterly gold price forecast made back in February was quite accurate and certainly closer than the LBMA analysts' forecast or BullionVault's users predictions.
Silver price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $20 - $30 | $20 - $30 | $20 - $32 | $21 - $33 |
| Gemini | $25 - $30 | $28 - $32 | $30 - $35 | $35 - $40 |
| BullionVault users | $29 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $24.80 | |||
| Actual Ave. Silver Price | $23.36 | $28.86 | $29.42 | $31.36 |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 2 January 2025. Data for 30 December 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Again in silver, AI predicted significant rises in the price by the end of 2024, with ChatGPT forecasting a potential high for silver of $40 per ounce. That would have marked a new record year-end price, albeit some way short of the all-time highs near $50 reached in January 1980 and April 2011.
How did AI silver price predictions compare vs human forecasts and the actual price in 2024?
ChatGPT got closer than Gemini in estimating silver bullion's price over 2024, although as the chart above shows, ChatGPT had very wide spreads between high and low quarterly prices. On average over the 4 quarters ChatGPT predictions on average varied by 8% compared to the actual quarterly average prices.
BullionVault's users predicted that the silver price would end the year at $29 per ounce which was more bullish than the LBMA analysts' annual average prediction of $24.80 and even more accurate than ChatGPT's projection.
Platinum price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $850 - $1,200 | $850 - $1,250 | $850 - $1,300 | $860 - $1,350 |
| Gemini | $930 -$1,000 | $875 - $950 | $875 - $975 | $900 - $1,050 |
| BullionVault users | $1,010 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $1,015 | |||
| Actual Ave. Platinum Price | $909.63 | $981.20 | $963.30 | $965.85 |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 2 January 2025. Data for 30 December 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Unlike its prediction for gold, Gemini's platinum price forecast for 2024 seemed a little more conservative and less bullish. However, ChatGPT 'thought' that platinum prices could go significantly higher.
How did AI platinum price predictions compare vs human forecasts and the actual price in 2024?
ChatGPT's price predictions were wildly out compared to the actual quarterly average platinum price. But looking more closely at the chart above, this was due to the extremely bullish nature of the upper price in its forecasted range.
Gemini quarterly price estimates for platinum only varied by 1.0% versus the actual price outcomes over 2024. Combined with its Q4 forecast's midpoint being less than $10 higher the final average Q4 price, Google's AI tool's estimates were more accurate than both BullionVault users and the LBMA analysts' forecasts.
Palladium price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $1,900 - $2,500 | $1,900 - $2,550 | $1,900 - $2,600 | $1,950 - $2,650 |
| Gemini | $650 - $800 | $700 - $825 | $700 - $850 | $750 - $900 |
| BullionVault users | $1,130 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $1,060 | |||
| Actual Ave. Palladium Price | $977.84 | $971.86 | $970.27 | $1,010.60 |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 2 January 2025. Data for 30 December 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Did ChatGPT know something that the LBMA's 25 expert analysts did not? Or was there simply not enough data on the internet regarding palladium for our two AI tools to predict such widely different prices?
Whatever the reasons, clearly ChatGPT got very confused when making its predictions in February 2024.
How did AI palladium price predictions compare vs human forecasts and the actual price in 2024?
Gemini's price predictions were closer that its AI competitor but still on average 21.5% different to reality over 2024.
BullionVault's users didn't do too badly, with their end-year price forecast coming second to the LBMA analysts' annual average forecast for the 2024 price.
2023 precious metal prices versus 2024 & 2025 forecasts
| Metal | 2023 average price (LBMA) | BullionVault users' prediction for year-end 2024 | LBMA analysts' forecast for year-end 2024 | 2024 average price (LBMA) | BullionVault users' prediction for year-end 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $1,940 | $2,342 | $2,059 | $2,386 | $3,070 |
| Silver | $23.35 | $29.00 | $24.80 | $28.27 | $36.80 |
| Platinum | $965 | $1,010 | $1,015 | $955 | $1,037 |
| Palladium | $1,337 | $1,130 | $1,060 | $983 | $1,076 |
It is worth noting that these predictions from both ChatGPT and Gemini were made in February 2024 and based on the individual tool's analysis of pre-existing market condition data, plus forecasts from other parties.
Over 2024, we updated the actual performance of the metals, offering insight into the abilities of both AI tools to forecast precious metal prices.
We have already updated the table above with BullionVault users' predictions for gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices at the end of 2025 and will in the near future publish 2025 forecasts from AI tools and LBMA analysts.
