Gold $3000 Forecast for 2025, Silver $36.80
Monday, 12/30/2024 19:08
Best gold investing price forecast survey says...
SO AFTER a stand-out year beating all other assets except Bitcoin, gold will rise through $3000 per Troy ounce for the first time ever in 2025,
writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
Says who?
Says BullionVault users, that's who. And they're the best gold price forecasters of 2024.
Silver will do even better, or so the forecast-winning hive mind of cost-and-safety conscious precious metal owners report...
...rising faster than gold to hit a new year-end record of its own at $36.80 per ounce.
Why?
BullionVault's survey has now run twice each year since 2014.
This month it polled over 1,400 full responses. And it finds that investors are optimistic about gold and silver for 2025 because they are so pessimistic on geopolitics and government debt.
Longer term, that second factor also poses the single greatest threat to the global economy and, therefore, to investment savings over the next 25 years too. Or so genuine investors sharing their thoughts in our survey say.
Between now and 2050, unfunded government spending and the resulting mountain of national debt poses the No.1 challenge for investors according to more than a quarter of BullionVault users taking our survey (28.5%).
That threat is followed by a loss of confidence in government (18.8%) and...for extra fun over the next quarter century...the growing risk of outright war between major powers (17.5%).
Such happy thoughts come after 2024 proved a remarkable year for gold, topping
a stellar quarter-century during which the precious metal has beaten the return from all other assets, even the US stock market.
While surging demand from households in China and India has supported this move, the switch into gold by private investors and more recently central banks has driven the precious metal to new all-time highs in terms of all currencies.
Nearer to hand, the No.1 driver of precious metals prices in the coming 12 months will be Geopolitics according to almost a third of BullionVault users (31.4%). That's seen it overtake Monetary Policy (down at 16.8%) in BullionVault's New Year survey for the first time since 2022.
In fact, concerns over the size of Government Budget Deficits and Debt come next, polling one-in-five responses (20.8%) and moving up to second place for the first New Year survey in four.
The impact on gold prices?
The price of gold has risen by 26.4% this year in terms of the US Dollar, its 18th annual gain of the 21st Century to date and its strongest rise since 2007.
Respondents to BullionVault's survey last December forecast that gold would reach $2342 this Christmas. Although 10.1% shy of the current price of $2606, that was much closer than consensus forecasts from bullion-market professionals.
What's more, BullionVault users then raised their year-end forecast to $2583 in our July survey. That's less than 0.9% off today's current level, a remarkable win as the best gold price forecaster.
Looking ahead, BullionVault's latest survey now forecasts a gold price of $3070 per Troy ounce at the end of 2025, an increase of 17.8% from today's level.
Our survey finds even greater confidence in silver, forecasting an end-2025 price of $36.80 with a projected increase of 26.9% from today.
That might sound dramatic...and the past doesn't promise the future of course. But the more industrially useful precious metal this year recorded its 15th annual rise since Millennium Eve, gaining 21.9%, hitting a run of 13-year highs, and spurring a mid-year hike to investor forecasts to say that silver would trade at nearly $34.50 per ounce by this New Year's Eve.
That $5 over-estimate shows how big gains can invite big expectations, and that can invite disappointment. Because again, the past is no guide to the future as regulators and other spoilsports repeatedly claim.
To be sure, the turnaround in gold and silver's fortunes so far this century shows how investment trends come and go.
Twenty-five years ago, gold in particular
was lost in the investment wilderness...
...unwanted by central banks, unloved by investors, and struggling to find demand from its big consumer markets following the Asian Crisis.
The positive shocks from the turnaround in those factors all now lie in the past. They cannot be repeated.
But the key trends driving gold prices upwards since the Millennium look set to continue, at least for the near-term. And beyond that, geopolitics and worsening government debt will then drive gold and silver higher next year before continuing to harry and harrow the financial markets through to mid-century. Or so the latest survey of the world's largest pool of active precious metals investors predicts.
Let's see what 2025 brings.
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